December 30th 2011
Looking Forward in the New Year: Crowding Out and Hyper-Inflation Watch
In my previous post, I cited Jeff Frieden’s and my proposal for a conditional inflation target. Yet, according to several observers, we are either on the brink of crowding out due to elevated government deficits [0], or high to hyperinflation, due to monetary base expansion [1]. As has been noted, none of these outcomes have yet materialized, despite months of such warnings. [2] [3] Here, I wanted to evaluate where market expectations stand on these views.
Nominal interest rates
As of December 28, constant maturity yields on five and ten year Treasury bills are at an all time (post-War) low.
According to the Fisherian relationship, the nominal interest rate is the sum of the ex ante real interest rate and the expected inflation rate. What do real interest rates look like? One can proxy real interest rates by examining yields on Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).
Real Interest Rates
Well, it is likely that real interest rates would be lower in the presence of smaller deficits.
Whether you are well-versed in international economics or not, you’re probably aware that Europe is having substantial problems. You’re also likely familiar with the resulting worldwide ripple effects: uncertainty amongst investors, fears of a global double-dip recession, and widespread political upheaval, just to name a few. Of course, there are a number of prominent theories for how to solve Europe’s debt crisis, but given the depth and complexity of the problem, none is perfect and each requires tough choices to be made. People – not just in Europe, but around the world – need hope, however. We need a plan, a sense that these economic issues are finite and not permanently debilitating. So, with that being said, what say we take a quick look at four different courses of action that Eurozone governments can take, the pros and cons of each, and which will provide the most long-term benefit without causing short-term chaos.